The Substance (c) MUBI
The time has come to finally predict the winners of the 97th Academy Award winners. After what can only be described as chaotic, with the fires in the LA area as well as political upheavals, the frontrunners of many of the categories have shifted throughout the award season. The film with the most nominations (Emilia Pérez) may only get three wins while a film with just six nominations (Anora) may be get four.
Last weekend’s SAG Awards did not help with clarity of who might win the Oscar. Did Demi Moore win for Best Actress because of her similar narrative to her character in The Substance and can the Academy overlook the body-horror aspect of the film to give her the win. Or can Brazilian actress Fernanda Torres repeat her win Golden Globe win for I'm Still Here just as Carnivale starts in Brazil? Adrian Brody has dominated the Best Actor category in the precursors for The Brutalist, but when Timothée Chalamet won the SAG Award for A Complete Unknown, it seemed like a path was made for him to win (he is the only actor to lead TWO Best Picture nominees).
Below are my percentage picks for each category as well as my vote if I was an Academy voter. If you have an Oscar Pool with friends or at work, look at the odds and make up your own mind as to who you think will win.
Thanks to everyone who followed the Oscars with me. This year is going to be bonkers. There is going to be one big surprise, but can one predict surprises? I decided to do one crazy prediction.
Enjoy!
Anora (c) NEON
The Interested Bystander’s
Final 96th Academy Awards Predictions
Best Picture
Anora (55%)
Conclave (40%)
The Brutalist (5%)
TIB: Dune Part 2
I'm Still Here (c) Sony Pictures Classics
Actress
Fernanda Torres, I'm Still Here (35%)
Mikey Madison, Anora (33%)
Demi Moore, The Substance (30%)
TIB: Cynthia Erivo, Wicked
The Brutalist (c) A24
Actor
Adrien Brody, The Brutalist (45%)
Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown (43%)
Ralph Fiennes, Conclave (10%)
TIB: Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown
Emilia Pérez (c) Netflix
Supporting Actress
Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez (53%)
Ariana Grande, Wicked (35%)
Isabella Rossellini, Conclave (10%)
TIB: Ariana Grande, Wicked
A Real Pain (c) Searchlight Pictures
Supporting Actor
Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (90%)
Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown (8%)
TIB: Yura Borisov, Anora
Director
Anora, Sean Baker (65%)
The Brutalist, Brady Corbet (30%)
TIB: Anora, Sean Baker
Original Screenplay
Anora (60%)
A Real Pain (35%)
TIB: A Real Pain
Conclave (c) Focus Features
Adapted Screenplay
Conclave (90%)
Nickel Boys (5%)
TIB: Conclave
International Feature Film
Emilia Pérez, France (55%)
I'm Still Here, Brazil (40%)
TIB: The Seed of the Sacred Fig, Germany
The Wild Robot (c) Universal Pictures
Animated Feature Film
The Wild Robot (65%)
Flow (30%)
TIB: Memoir of a Snail
Documentary Feature Film
Porcelain War (55%)
No Other Land (40%)
TIB: No Other Land
Original Score
Conclave, Volker Bertelmann (35%)
The Brutalist, Daniel Blumberg (33%)
Wicked, John Powell and Stephen Schwartz (25%)
TIB: The Wild Robot, Kris Bowers
Original Song
"El Mal" from Emilia Pérez (50%)
"The Journey" from The Six Triple Eight (25%)
"Like A Bird" from Sing Sing (20%)
TIB: "Mi Camino" from Emilia Pérez
Cinematography
The Brutalist (70%)
Maria (20%)
TIB: Dune: Part Two
Wicked (c) Universal Pictures
Costume Design
Wicked (85%)
Conclave (10%)
TIB: Wicked
Film Editing
Conclave (65%)
Anora (25%)
TIB: Conclave
Production Design
Wicked (52%)
The Brutalist (25%)
Dune: Part Two (20%)
TIB: Wicked
Sound
Dune: Part Two (75%)
Wicked (20%)
TIB: Dune: Part Two
In the Shadow of the Cypress (c) Voce Spettacolo
Animated Short Film
In the Shadow of the Cypress (35%)
Yuck! (30%)
Magic Candies (25%)
TIB: Magic Candies
Documentary Short Film
Incident (40%)
The Only Girl in the Orchestra (35%)
I Am Ready, Warden (20%)
TIB: Incident
Live Action Short Film
A Lien (45%)
The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent (25%)
Anuja (23%)
TIB: I'm Not a Robot
Dune Part II (c) Warner Bros Pictures
Visual Effects
Dune: Part Two (85%)
Wicked (10%)
TIB: Dune: Part Two
Makeup and Hairstyling
The Substance (90%)
Nosferatu (5%)
TIB: Nosferatu
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