The Interested Bystander’s Oscar Predictions: January 2025

The Substance (c) MUBI

We’ve been living with the latest Oscar nominations for a week now, and it seems like enough time has passed to now dash the hopes of 80% of them with my predictions of who, at this moment, would win in each category. Next month will give us a better indication, with a lot of industry awards being given out, including the SAG Awards, BAFTA, the Producers Guild and many others. I have ranked the nominees of most likely to least likely to win. 

Enjoy! 

Theater Reviews: “Kowalski” Cleverly Inserts Itself Into the Making of “A Streetcar of Desire”; The All-Asian, All-Female “Cymbeline” Is a Fascinating Take on Lesser-Known Shakespeare; Adam Lambert and Auli’i Cravalho Inject Crazy Adrenaline Into “Cabaret at The Kit Kat Club”

Kowalski (c) Russ Rowland

Theater: Kowalski 
The Duke on 42nd Street 

If I told you that the new play by Gregg Ostrin was about two men named Bud and Tom, who meet for the first time in 1947 at a summer cottage for an acting audition on Broadway, it would be a fine premise. But what if it’s based on a true incident when Tom, or maybe you may know him as the playwright Tennessee Williams, meets a then mostly unknown actor Marlon Brando (Bud to his friends) to see if he’s right for the role of Stanley Kowalski in the Broadway premiere production of A Streetcar Named Desire. That gives the play a bit more spice as one would have loved to have been in the room where it happened when the homosexual Williams (played with the iciest of Southern warmth by Robin Lord Taylor) first meets the heteroflexible Brando (the charismatic but too-cool-for-school Brandon Flynn), who will shoot to super stardom in the role of Stanley. The problem is that Williams envisioned Kowalski as a 30-year-old man (John Garfield would be his choice) and Brando is in his early-20s, but as a favor to the play’s director Elia Kazan, he agrees to audition Brando. Although Ostrin falls into the historical fiction trap of dropping references that will eventually make it into Streetcar (Stanley’s eating habits that disgust Blanche as well as the famous, guttural “Stella” scream), he does give us an evenly matched meeting between these two towering figures of American Theater, as Williams is already high on his own resume (his Broadway debut play, The Glass Menagerie, was a big hit) and Brando seems already bored with stardom, even though he’s only played bit parts. 

Film: Oscar Nominations 2024 - 2025

I'm Still Here (c) Sony Pictures Classics

The 97th Academy Awards | 2025 

Dolby Theatre at Ovation Hollywood 

Sunday, March 2, 2025 

Surprises (to me) in Red 

Best Picture 

Anora 
The Brutalist 
A Complete Unknown 
Conclave 
Dune: Part Two 
Emilia Pérez 
I'm Still Here 
Nickel Boys 
The Substance 
Wicked 

Theater Review: “Gypsy” Triumphs Again on Broadway With Audra McDonald in an Unforgettable Performance; “Cult of Love” Is a Funny Tale About a Family in Turmoil; and “The Pirates of Penzance” at NYGASP Was a Necessary Primer for the Upcoming Broadway Revisal

Gypsy (c) Julieta Cervantes

Broadway: Gypsy 
At the Majestic Theatre 

It’s a no-brainer. One of the most acclaimed musical theater actresses of our generation tackling the King Lear of musical characters, and it doesn’t matter what I or anyone else says, you have to see the latest Gypsy. Audra McDonald is playing Madame Rose (never Momma Rose) and even before she yells out “Sing out, Louise” from the house, the audience is already clapping and cheering loudly in anticipation of every classic Jule Styne and Stephen Sondheim song she will tackle in the next two-plus hours. And they (and you) will not be disappointed. Not to jump to conclusions (as it were) but her big finale number, “Rose’s Turn,” is explosive, emotional, exhausting and everything you expect from a consummate actress and expressive singer like McDonald. The role has only been tackled on Broadway with the biggest names (Ethel Merman, Angela Lansbury, Bernadette Peters, Patti LuPone and, yes, even Tyne Daly), and it was inevitable that McDonald would get her chance to unlock the ultimate stage mother/monster that is Rose. McDonald doesn’t sugarcoat Rose’s ambitions for herself and her daughters June (Jordan Tyson) and Louise (Joy Woods), no matter how many people she takes advantage of, which includes her father and her boyfriend, the ulcer-ridden Herbie (Danny Burstein). McDonald is assisted by director George C. Wolfe’s concept that this depression era musical rarely rises above its depression. You can feel Rose’s determination in McDonald, as if she were playing Mother Courage with all the sets and cow costumes strapped to her back. When there are setbacks, especially the one that ends act one, her number, “Everything’s Coming Up Roses,” is more a song about horror (“Momma is gonna see to it…”) to Herbie and Louise than optimism. 

The Interested Bystander’s Final 2024-2025 Oscar Nomination Predictions

A Complete Unknown (c) Searchlight Pictures

On this day of many emotions, I choose to distract myself with the Oscars as Rome and Los Angeles are burning (all metaphors aside, I do have friends who live in LA, and thankfully, most of them have not been touched by the fires, but my thoughts are with those who lost everything including one of my favorite YouTubers, Benji Plant). This is not a runaway hit year, with movies that are not people’s passion picks, but admirable picks. The only movie with a rabid fan base that will make it a dent is most likely The Substance, which would be cool as a body horror movie has never made it to Best Picture, but can it overperform in other categories as well? 

There’s also a battle at the bottom half of the Best Picture race with smaller films like Nickel Boys, Hard Truths, Sing Sing and September 5 battling it out. Two years ago, that movie was Women Talking. 

The nominations will be announced on Thursday, Jan 23 at 8:30am on ABC as well as Disney+ and Hulu. 

Dorian Film Award Nominations Include "Challengers," "I Saw the TV Glow" and "Will & Harper"

I Saw the TV Glow (c) A24

Friday Jan. 17, 2025 - Los Angeles - GALECA: The Society of LGBTQ Entertainment Critics, consisting of over 500 entertainment critics, journalists and media icons, today announced the group’s democratically chosen nominees for its 16th Dorian Film Awards. The Dorians go to both mainstream and LGBTQ-themed content, celebrating what the group calls “the expert Q+ eye on entertainment.” 

Leading with an impressive nine nominations is writer-director Jane Schoenbrun’s thought-provoking horror tale I Saw the TV Glow, a film overlooked by many other kudos groups considering 2024’s theatrical and digital releases. Star Demi Moore’s thriller of a comeback The Substance is a close second, with 8 Dorian nods. 

Film: Spoiler Talk For 2024 Films, Like Is “The Brutalist” as Homophobic as “Emilia Perez” Is Trans Tone Deaf?

Babygirl (c) A24

One drawback to seeing movies before they open commercially (humble bragging, sorry) is that I have spoiler questions or thoughts that I couldn’t never bring up in my reviews, because I respect my readers (you’re welcome). But at the end of every movie year, I do have to get them off my chest with spoiler thoughts for people who have finally seen these films. This column is actually a throwback to something my younger self would do: email friends and co-workers (who wanted them or not) thoughts on award shows the night before. 

The Interested Bystander's Top Films of 2024 (and 2023!)

Touch (c) Focus Feature

Two Years in Films: Best of 2023 & 2024 

After the foregone conclusion of Oppenheimer at last year’s Oscars, the films of 2024 do not have a slam dunk favorite for Best Picture or in my own personal list with really good films that I admired seemingly now destined to be on my best films of 2024 “Best of” list. 

Like last year, I will only list my favorite twenty films of 2024, in alphabetical order and not actually list them in order of my top ten favorites until the end of 2025, after a year of reflection and catching up on films I may have missed. In fact, at the time of this article, I have not seen Babygirl or All We Imagine as Light yet. 

Which means, after a year of reflection, my final Top Ten of films of 2023 is below. I am also pointing out some 2024 performances that haven’t gotten the recognition they deserve from award groups so far. So, enjoy my wrap up of 2024 and, as always, I hope you have a safe and cinematically rich 2025.