Oscar's Class of 2023 (c) Richard Harbaugh
After Sunday’s Oscar ceremony, it will either be a huge Oppenheimer blow-out with it winning statues in the double digits or the Academy members decide to spread the wealth. It will feel obvious after the fact, but at this moment in the before times, I am overthinking it to the nth degree. So, I am hedging my bets and predicting other movies to win awards that Oppenheimer is nominated in, but something tells me Oppenheimer’s sweep could be as big as it was projected on the IMAX screen. I am also giving the odds of each category of who I am predicting so you can make your own decision when you fill out your own Oscar pool ballot.
Enjoy.
The Interested Bystander’s Final
96th Academy Awards Predictions
Oppenheimer (c) Universal Pictures
Picture
OSCAR: Oppenheimer (90%)
POSSIBLE: Poor Things (6%)
TIB: American Fiction
Director
OSCAR: Christopher Nolan — Oppenheimer (95%)
POSSIBLE: Yorgos Lanthimos — Poor Things (1%)
TIB: Christopher Nolan — Oppenheimer
Killers of the Flower Moon (c) Apple TV+
Actress in a Leading Role
OSCAR: Lily Gladstone — Killers of the Flower Moon (36%)
POSSIBLE: Emma Stone — Poor Things (35%)
TIB: Lily Gladstone — Killers of the Flower Moon
Actor in a Leading Role
OSCAR: Cillian Murphy — Oppenheimer (60%)
POSSIBLE: Paul Giamatti — The Holdovers (25%)
TIB: Colman Domingo — Rustin
The Holdovers (c) Focus Features
Actress in a Supporting Role
OSCAR: Da’Vine Joy Randolph — The Holdovers (95%)
POSSIBLE: Jodie Foster — Nyad (1%)
TIB: Jodie Foster — Nyad
Actor in a Supporting Role
OSCAR: Robert Downey Jr. — Oppenheimer (90%)
POSSIBLE: Ryan Gosling — Barbie (5%)
TIB: Ryan Gosling — Barbie
Writing (Original Screenplay)
OSCAR: Anatomy of a Fall (55%)
POSSIBLE: The Holdovers (20%)
TIB: May December
American Fiction (c) Amazon MGM
Writing (Adapted Screenplay)
OSCAR: American Fiction (35%)
POSSIBLE: Oppenheimer (30%)
TIB: American Fiction
Music (Original Score)
OSCAR: Oppenheimer (80%)
POSSIBLE: Poor Things (10%)
TIB: Poor Things
Music (Original Song)
OSCAR: What Was I Made For? — Barbie (70%)
POSSIBLE: I’m Just Ken — Barbie (25%)
TIB: I’m Just Ken — Barbie
Zone of Interest (c) A24
International Feature Film
OSCAR: The Zone of Interest (90%)
POSSIBLE: Society of the Snow (2%)
TIB: Perfect Days
Animated Feature Film
OSCAR: The Boy and the Heron (40%)
POSSIBLE: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (39%)
TIB: The Boy and the Heron
20 Days in Mariupol (c) PBS
Documentary (Feature)
OSCAR: 20 Days in Mariupol (80%)
POSSIBLE: The Eternal Memory (7%)
TIB: n/a
Cinematography
OSCAR: Oppenheimer (90%)
POSSIBLE: Poor Things (3%)
TIB: Oppenheimer
Costume Design
OSCAR: Poor Things (45%)
POSSIBLE: Barbie (40%)
TIB: Poor Things
Film Editing
OSCAR: Oppenheimer (70%)
POSSIBLE: Anatomy of a Fall (10%)
TIB: Oppenheimer
Barbie (c) Warner Bros
Production Design
OSCAR: Barbie (40%)
POSSIBLE: Poor Things (39%)
TIB: Poor Things
Sound
OSCAR: Oppenheimer (55%)
POSSIBLE: The Zone of Interest (40%)
TIB: Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part 1
War is Over! Inspired by the Music of John Lennon and Yoko Ono (c) Electroleague
Short Film (Animated)
OSCAR: War is Over! Inspired by the Music of John Lennon and Yoko Ono (55%)
POSSIBLE: Letter to a Pig (20%)
TIB: Ninety-Five Senses
Short Film (Documentary)
OSCAR: Năi Nai & Wài Pó (35%)
POSSIBLE: The Last Repair Shop (30%)
TIB: Năi Nai & Wài Pó
Short Film (Live Action)
OSCAR: The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar (55%)
POSSIBLE: Knight of Fortune (30%)
TIB: The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar
Poor Things (c) Searchlight Pictures
Makeup and Hairstyling
OSCAR: Poor Things (60%)
POSSIBLE: Maestro (20%)
TIB: Maestro
Visual Effects
OSCAR: Godzilla Minus One (50%)
POSSIBLE: Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part 1 (20%)
TIB: Godzilla Minus One