The Fabelsman (c) Universal Pictures and Amblin Entertainment
Yes, it’s super premature to even talk about the Oscars, but with last night's Emmy Awards now behind us – congrats to Sheryl Lee Ralph from "Abbott Elementary" for singing her speech and Jennifer Coolidge for "The White Lotus" for dancing her speech – it’s now a clear runway to the movie awards season. And with a lot of the movies already premiered at the usual film festivals (like Toronto, Venice, Sundance, Cannes) and the only unknowns are the late breaking films that will not make it into theaters until December. But, based on past results of the talent involved, here are my ridiculously early thoughts on Oscars.
Best Picture
Everything Everywhere All at Once (c) A24
Frontrunners:
“Armageddon Time”
“The Banshees of Inisherin”
“Babylon”
“Elvis”
“Empire of Light”
“Everything Everywhere All at Once”
“The Fabelmans”
“The Greatest Beer Run Ever”
“RRR”
“TÁR”
Possible:
“Avatar: The Way of Water”
“Decision to Leave”
“Top Gun: Maverick”
“The Son”
“Women Talking”
Best Director
Elvis (c) Warner Bros Pictures
Frontrunners:
Todd Field – “TAR”
Dan Kwan and Daniel Scheinert – “Everything Everywhere All at Once”
Baz Luhrmann – “Elvis”
Martin McDonagh – “The Banshees of Inisherin”
Steven Spielberg – “The Fabelmans”
Possible:
James Cameron – “Avatar: The Way of Water”
Park Chan-wook – “Decision to Leave”
Sarah Polley – “Women Talking”
S.S. Rajamouli – “RRR”
Florian Zeller – “The Son”
Best Actor
Living (c) Lionsgate
Frontrunners:
Austin Butler – “Elvis”
Colin Farrell – “The Banshees of Inisherin”
Brendan Fraser – “The Whale”
Brendan Gleeson – “The Banshees of Inisherin”
Bill Nighy – “Living”
Possible:
Timothée Chalamet – “Bones and All”
Hugh Jackman – “The Son”
Jack Lowden – “Benediction”
Brad Pitt – “Babylon”
Jeremy Pope – “The Inspection”
Best Actress
TAR (c) Focus Features
Frontrunners:
Cate Blanchett – “TÁR”
Olivia Colman – “Empire of Light”
Vicky Krieps – “Corsage”
Emma Thompson – “Good Luck to You, Leo Grande”
Michelle Yeoh – “Everything Everywhere All at Once”
Possible:
Naomi Ackie – “I Wanna Dance With Somebody”
Viola Davis – “The Woman King”
Jennifer Lawrence – “Causeway”
Carrie Mulligan – “She Said”
Florence Pugh – “The Wonder”
Best Supporting Actor
Nope (c) Universal Pictures
Frontrunners:
Russell Crowe – “The Greatest Bear Run Ever”
Paul Dano – “The Fabelmans”
Colin Firth – “Empire of Light”
Anthony Hopkins – “Armageddon Time”
Steven Yuen – “Nope”
Possible:
Ethan Hawke – “The Northman”
Barry Keoghan – “The Banshees of Inisherin”
Justin H. Mim – “After Yang”
Ke Huy Quan – “Everything Everywhere All at Once”
Jeremy Strong – “Armageddon Time”
Best Supporting Actress
Roald Dahl's Mathilda the Musical (c) Sony Pictures
Frontrunners:
Jamie Lee Curtis – “Everything Everywhere All at Once”
Laura Dern – “The Son”
Anne Hathaway – “Armageddon Time”
Emma Thompson – “Roald Dahl’s Mathilda the Musical”
Michelle Williams – “The Fabelmans”
Possible:
Jessie Buckley – “Women Talking”
Patricia Clarkson – “She Said”
Kerry Condon – “The Banshees of Inisherin”
Nina Hoss – “TAR”
Gabrielle Union – “The Inspection”
Best Original Screenplay
Armageddon Time (c) Focus Features
Frontrunners:
Damien Chazelle – “Babylon”
Todd Field – “TÁR”
Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert – “Everything Everywhere All at Once”
Tony Kushner and Steven Spielberg – “The Fabelmans”
Martin McDonagh – “The Banshees of Inisherin”
Possible:
Park Chan-wook and Seo-kyeong Jeong – “Decision to Leave”
James Gray – “Armageddon Time”
Sam Mendes – “Empire of Light”
Ruben Östlund – “Triangle of Sadness”
David O. Russell – “Amsterdam”
Best Adapted Screenplay
Women Talking (c) United Artists Releasing
Frontrunners:
Christopher Hampton and Florian Zeller – “The Son”
Kazuo Ishiguro – “Living”
Rian Johnson – “Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery”
Kogonada – “After Yang”
Sarah Polley – “Women Talking”
Possible:
Noah Baumbach – “White Noise”
Robert Eggers, Sjon – “The Northman”
Brian Hayes Currie, Peter Farrelly, and Pete Jones – “The Greatest Beer Run Ever”
Samuel D. Hunter – “The Whale”
Rebecca Lenkiewicz – “She Said”
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