The Lost Daughter (c) Netflix
December 2021
With critics groups weighing in and two major award precursors announced, the Oscar race is getting clearer, although, one shouldn’t shelve hunches just yet. While Maggie Gyllenhaal’s “The Lost Daughter” is getting more attention than I would have guessed, maybe its win at the Gotham Awards made the movie more of a must see than other screeners for critics and Academy members alike. And while I think it’s still not a shoo-in for Best Picture, Olivia Colman as Best Actress and Gyllenhaal’s screenplay is certainly in play.
But I am still holding out for my hunches.
Here are some predictions I’m hanging onto in each category, most have not gotten any love at all with the precursors:
Best Picture: The French Dispatch
Best Actor: Michael Keaton – Worth
Best Actress: Tessa Thompson – Passing
Best Supporting Actor: Timothy Spall – Spencer
Best Supporting Actress: Marlee Matlin – CODA
Best Director: Julia Ducournau – Titane
Best Original Screenplay: Bergman Island – Mia Hansen-Løve
Best Adapted Screenplay: tick, tick…Boom! – Steven Levenson
Here are my predictions as of the end of December:
Best Picture
tick, tick...Boom! (c) Netflix
Frontrunners:
Being the Ricardos
Belfast
CODA
Dune
The French Dispatch
King Richard
Licorice Pizza
The Power of the Dog
tick, tick…Boom!
West Side Story
Possibilities:
C'mon C'mon
Don’t Look Up
Drive My Car
The Green Knight
The Lost Daughter
Nightmare Alley
Parallel Mothers
Passing
Spencer
The Tragedy of Macbeth
Longshots:
Cyrano
In the Heights
Spider-Man: No Way Home
Best Actor
The Tragedy of Macbeth (c) A24
Frontrunners:
Javier Bardem – Being the Ricardos
Benedict Cumberbatch - The Power of the Dog
Andrew Garfield – tick, tick…Boom!
Will Smith - King Richard
Denzel Washington - The Tragedy of Macbeth
Possibilities:
Mahershala Ali – Swan Song
Nicolas Cage – Pig
Michael Keaton - Worth
Dev Patel – The Green Knight
Joaquin Phoenix – C'mon C'mon
Longshots:
Peter Dinklage – Cyrano
Jude Hill – Belfast
Oscar Issac – The Card Counter
Best Actress
House of Gucci (c) United Artist Releasing
Frontrunners:
Jessica Chastain – The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Olivia Colman – The Lost Daughter
Penélope Cruz – Parallel Mothers
Nicole Kidman – Being the Ricardos
Kristen Stewart – Spencer
Possibilities:
Lady Gaga – House of Gucci
Alana Haim – Licorice Pizza
Jennifer Hudson – Respect
Tessa Thompson – Passing
Rachel Zegler – West Side Story
Longshots:
Emilia Jones – CODA
Jennifer Lawrence – Don’t Look Up
Renate Runsve – The Worst Person in the World
Best Supporting Actor
The Tender Bar (c) Amazon Studios
Frontrunners:
Ciarán Hinds – Belfast
Troy Kotsur – CODA
Jesse Plemons – The Power of the Dog
J.K. Simmons – Being the Ricardos
Kodi Smit-McPhee – The Power of the Dog
Possibilities:
Jon Berenthal – King Richard
Bradley Cooper – Licorice Pizza
Jamie Dornan - Belfast
Jared Leto – House of Gucci
Timothy Spall - Spencer
Longshots:
Ben Affleck – The Tender Bar
Stanley Tucci – Worth
Jeffrey Wright – The French Dispatch
Best Supporting Actress
Belfast (c) Focus Features
Frontrunners:
Caitriona Balfe – Belfast
Ariana DeBose – West Side Story
Kirsten Dunst – The Power of the Dog
Aunjanue Ellis – King Richard
Ruth Negga – Passing
Possibilities:
Judi Dench – Belfast
Ann Dowd – Mass
Sally Hawkins – Spencer
Marlee Matlin – CODA
Rita Moreno – West Side Story
Longshots:
Jessie Buckley – The Lost Daughter
Jayne Houdyshell – The Humans
Olga Merediz – In the Heights
Best Director
The Power of the Dog (c) Netflix
Frontrunners:
Pedro Almodóvar – Parallel Mothers
Kenneth Branagh – Belfast
Jane Campion – The Power of the Dog
Ryusuke Hamaguchi – Drive My Car
Denis Villeneuve – Dune
Possibilities:
Paul Thomas Anderson – Licorice Pizza
Wes Anderson – The French Dispatch
Reinaldo Marcus Green – King Richard
Maggie Gyllenhaal – The Lost Daughter
Steven Spielberg – West Side Story
Longshots:
Joel Cohen – The Tragedy of Macbeth
Julia Ducournau – Titane
Guillermo del Toro – Nightmare Alley
Best Original Screenplay
A Hero (c) Amazon Studios
Frontrunners:
Being the Ricardos - Aaron Sorkin
Belfast – Kenneth Branagh
King Richard – Zach Baylin
Licorice Pizza – Paul Thomas Anderson
Parallel Mothers – Pedro Almodóvar
Possibilities:
Bergman Island – Mia Hansen-Løve
C'mon C'mon – Mike Mills
Don’t Look Up – Adam McKay, David Sirota
The French Dispatch - Wes Anderson, Jason Schwartzman, Roman Coppola
A Hero – Asghar Farhadi
Longshots:
Mass - Fran Kranz
Red Rocket – Sean Baker
Titane – Julia Ducournau
Best Adapted Screenplay
Drive My Car (c) Janus Films
Frontrunners:
Drive My Car – Ryusuke Hamaguci, Takamasa Oe
The Green Knight – David Lowery
The Lost Daughter – Maggie Gyllenhaal
The Power of the Dog – Jane Campion
West Side Story – Tony Kushner
Possibilities:
CODA – Siân Heder
Dune – Jon Spaihts, Denis Villeneuve, Eric Roth
Passing – Rebecca Hall
tick, tick…Boom! – Steven Levenson
Worth – Max Borenstein
Longshots:
Nightmare Alley – Guillermo del Toro, Kim Morgan
The Tender Bar – William Monaham
The Tragedy of Macbeth – Joel Coen
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