The Interested Bystander’s Final Oscar Predictions for 2025-2026

Hamnet (c) Focus Features

For the longest time, it all seemed like a slam dunk for One Battle After Another for this year’s Oscars win (like Oppenheimer and Everything Everywhere All at Once), following a lot of prizes from the critic prizes. And even though it does seem that the industry prizes like the DGA, PGA and BAFTA, for some reason a lot of weight has been given to the SAG Actor Awards, even though it would seem that the actor’s branch would go for Sinners, following other big ensemble, crowd pleaser that weren’t big Oscar players like Dreamgirls, The Help, The Trial of the Chicago 7, Black Panther and American Hustle. 

And while it is true that Sinners did overperform at the Oscar nominations with the most ever (at 16), I still think this genre horror (albeit with a very effective racism and slavery overtones) will be hard for the Academy to embrace. The years that CODA and Parasite surprised with underdog wins, the perceived frontrunners (The Power of the Dog and 1917, respectively) those years were losing momentum with the audience pleasers overtaking the artier choices. I don’t see that attitude with One Battle After Another. People still love Paul Thomas Anderson and do believe this is his best and most accessible film, like Christopher Nolan and before him. However, if Sinners wins a lot of awards early in the evening, everything goes out of the window, and this more popular film will win. Again, I will give the odds of the top nominees of each category (so you will see how tight the race is) as well as my vote (if I had one). 

Enjoy the predictions and have fun on Sunday, March 15 on ABC. 

Theater Reviews: Mint Theater Presents “Zack,” Another Amusing Harold Brighouse Play; “Spare Parts” Envisions a World With a Possible Fountain of Youth, and “Bigfoot!” Humanizes (and Musicalizes) an Outsider

Zack (c) Todd Cerveris

Theater: Zack 
The Mint Theater at Theatre Row 

The Mint Theater has resurrected another play by the British playwright Harold Brighouse, who is best known for Hobson’s Choice, produced over a century ago on Broadway and made into a popular movie in the ‘50s. Last year, they revived Brighouse’s Garside’s Career in a lovely production, and now they are producing Zack, the playwright’s follow-up to Hobson’s Choice. And I have to say, plotwise, it doesn’t have the heft or historical intrigue of the other two plays. Still, I thoroughly enjoyed the production, mainly for its title character. Zach (Jordan Matthew Brown), unlike Mr. Hobson and Mr. Garside, neither has choice nor career. He is the younger and more unpredictable brother of the upstanding Paul (David T. Patterson), who runs a wedding planning service for their much put-upon mother, Mrs. Munning (Melissa Maxwell). Times are tough, so when Virginia (Cassia Thompson), a wealthy distant cousin, comes for a visit, Mrs. Munning hopes to make a love match for Paul. She also tries to keep the kind-hearted but bumbling, overweight and heavily bearded Zack, whom she considers an embarrassment, out of all family interactions. But try as they may, it seems Virginia has more in common with Zack than Paul, and when the rest of the family gets wind of their flirtation, plans are afoot to get Zack out of their hair. This includes an odd plot moment when Zack makes a joke about marrying local girl Martha (Grace Guichard) and her over-protective father holds him to that promise. The problem with Zack is that even if it’s a fascinating time capsule, it’s not very funny for a comedy of manners. Zack is relegated to almost a supporting role for much of the play as we witness most of the other not-so-sympathetic characters try to scheme and manipulate each other for their selfish ends. But whenever Zack appears, in the hands of the talented and immensely likeable Brown, he’s always a decent and honest person, even if he sometimes believes everyone’s bad opinions of him. Britt Berke’s evenhanded production may not make Zack a compelling play to revisit, but it’s fascinating to see how a playwright from early in the last century gave voice to a compelling outsider. 

Dorian Film Awards Endorses "Sinners" with the Most Wins for 2025 - 2026

Sinners (c) Warner Bros Pictures

March 3, 2026, Los Angeles – GALECA: The Society of LGBTQ Entertainment Critics, the second largest entertainment journalists organization in the world, today announced the group’s 2026 Dorian Film Awards, with Sinners emerging as the year’s undeniable standout with 6 wins. In a rare alignment of commercial success and critical acclaim, Ryan Coogler’s sweeping historical horror epic, Sinners, became one of the few recent blockbusters to sweep the Dorians’ top prizes, underscoring its cultural resonance and artistic ambition. Earning Film of the Year and securing a commanding number of honors across major categories, including Director of the Year for Coogler, who was also named Wilde Artist of the Year, this recognition underscores its cultural resonance and artistic ambition. 

Theater Reviews: Off-Broadway Explores the “Chinese Republicans” Women of Manhattan, the Citizens of “Mother Russia” Getting a Taste of Capitalism, and How “The Monsters” Effect Two Damaged Siblings

Chinese Republicans (c) Joan Marcus

Theater: Chinese Republicans 
At the Laura Pels Theatre

Every third Thursday of the month, the “Asian Babes Changing the Game” affinity group of the Friedman Wallace investment bank meet at an upscale Chinese restaurant to check in with each other (and I guess, theoretically, to change the game). The head of the group is the firm’s managing director, Ellen (Jennifer Ikeda), who is excited that her protégé Katie (Anna Zavelson) just got promoted and is on her way up the corporate ladder. Also at the lunch are Iris (Jully Lee), a software engineer whose work visa is about to run out, and the Alpha of the group, Phyllis (Jodi Long), who was the first Asian woman to become an executive in the field. At these lunches, sharing ideas quickly devolves into bitching sessions, especially about how they feel compartmentalized and how to stand out at work. When Katie arrives at the next lunch to announce she is being tapped for another position in the APAC market (which is why she is practicing her Mandarin with Duolingo), things start to get tense within the group. Although playwright Alex Lin provocatively calls her latest play, Chinese Republicans, the focus in Chey Yew’s adept production is mostly on how women navigate the tricky male world of corporate finance. There’s a lot of talk about being othered as Chinese as well, especially from Phyllis (Long is especially good with her acid-tongued observations), but the Republican part only plays a small part until Lin shakes things up midway through. 

The Interested Bystander’s Oscar Predictions Path: February 2026

One Battle After Another (c) Warner Bros.

With the Oscars heading into its last lap before they give out their awards on March 15, we look to the awards given out so far (and to come) to see if we have any clues as to who will win. 

Critic’s Choice: Given Out on Jan 14 
Golden Globes: Given Out on Jan 11 
DGA Awards: Given Out on Feb 7 

BAFTA (Predictions): To Be Given Out This Sunday, Feb 22 
SAG’s Actor Awards (Predictions): To Be Given Out Sunday, March 1 
Writer’s Guild Awards (Predictions): To Be Given Out Sunday, March 8 

TIB Oscar Prediction: As of Today, My Prediction, To Be Given Out Sunday, March 15 

Enjoy my predicted path to the Oscar winners.